Feb. 2013 Overview of current arms control issues Why are physicists involved? 1) ongoing issues/crises N. Korea - on/off crisis since Fall 2002 when IAEA inspectors expelled -+ 6-party talks on/off since 2003 ++ DPRK agrees to rejoin NPT (9/19/05) --- UN SC 7/15/06 resol. condemns DPRK for 7 missile tests --- DPRK nuclear test (10/9/06) condemned by UN SC +++ 6-party agreement on DPRK nuclear program (Feb. 2007) +++ DPRK agrees to disable nuclear facilities by end of 2007 (Oct.) +++ DPRK gives US files about its Pu program but not U program (May 2008) --- DPRK limits test samples at Yongbyon (Nov. 2008) --- DPRK long-range missile launch condemned by UN SC (April 2009) ---- DPRK ceases cooperation with IAEA, asks inspectors to leave (April) ---- DPRK nuclear test (5/25/09) condemned by UN SC --- DPRK satellite launch condemned by UN SC (Dec. 2012) ---- DPRK 3rd nuclear test (2/12/13) Iran - crisis since Fall 2003, talks with major powers, IAEA involvement --- IAEA 9/24/05 resol. finds Iran's "many failures and breaches --- of its obligations ... constitute non compliance" --- IAEA 2/4/06 resol. reports Iran to UN Security Council ---- UN SC 7/31/06 resol. demands Iran suspend U enrichment ---- UN SC 12/23/06 imposes some sanctions on Iran ---- UN SC 3/24/07 imposes more sanctions on Iran +++ IAEA agreement with Iran on resolving issues (Sept. 2007) ---- IAEA notes lack of progress on alleged weaponization studies (May/Sept.) ---- Iran does not meet deadline to respond to 6-powers' proposal (Aug. 2008) ---- IAEA in "stalemate" with Iran about nuclear programs (Sept. 2009) IAEA inspectors visit new Iranian U enrichment plant (Oct. 2009) IAEA criticizes Iran's lack of cooperation (Feb. & Sept. 2010) ---- UN SC 6/9/10 imposes more sanctions on Iran Iraq - Iraq Survey Group finished, no WMD but intent to restart A.Q. Khan network, Libya admits secret programs revelations about secret nuclear programs in S. Korea, Taiwan, & Egypt 2) treaties New START Treaty signed by US & Russia in force since Feb. 2011 SORT/Moscow Treaty expired in 2012, START Treaty expired in Dec. 2009 ABM Treaty - US withdrew in 2002 NPT - review conf. in May 2005 ended in failure, 2010 review conf. reaffirmed goals & action plan CTBT - rejected by US Senate in 1999, US did not attend Sept. 2007 conf. FMCT - Bush admin. opposed to provisions for inspections & verification 3) 2002 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, new nuclear weapons studies + operations U.S. Reliable Replacement Warhead (Jan. 2007) rejected by Congress Congress approves nuclear technology deal with India (Oct. 2008) 2010 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review advocates reduced role & size of arsenal 4) missile defenses - 16 GMD interceptors in Alaska + 2 in Calif. 10 proposed for Poland + radar in Czech Rep. --> TMD system? 5) Hawaii's role missile defense tests - 21 intercepts in 25 tries since 2002 satellite intercept on 2/20/08 high power laser & rail gun at PMRF? classified research at UH? Future Can NPT regime continue? If not, then what? nuclear weapons indefinitely vs. disarmament (1997 NAS study) 1/4/07 WSJ article "A World Free of Nuclear Weapons" July 2007 "National Security and Nuclear Weapons" statement by US "Nuclear Weapons in 21st Century U.S. National Security" report in Dec. 2008 by AAAS, APS, & CSIS Will terrorists use WMD?